The Shape of Oscars

This year's award season has been full of surprises on many fronts. Some names are cast in stones and destined for the wins, while others, such as evidenced during yesterday's Independent Spirit Awards, are bound to make history during a dramatic turn of events. Progressing along, many of us who are attuned to the highs and lows of the awards scene have made tremendous changes in his or her prediction lists, going back and forth, moving names and films up and down, in and out, just so we could re-align our preferences with the precursors. It is a puzzling situation that exposes our weaknesses as "guesstimators".

After all that's been seen, said and done, it's really anyone's guesses and games, while we chillax and choose the best ones based on our hunches and that of the industry's standards. After which we gather to ask, again and again, year after year - in the celebration of cinematic excellence, who then shall rise to clinch the golden statue? This year, after watching roughly 85% of the nominated films, I can conclude that whichever and whoever takes home the golden man, they all truly deserves their respective accolades. And at this point in time, it takes a bigger phenomenon than last year's La La Land / Moonlight snafu, to totally confound me and blow my mind away.

Chances of winning Best Picture: 92%. Will definitely clinch Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, respectively. A very high chance for Original Screenplay too.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 95%. Will most probably win Best Director for Guillermo de Toro, and a second win for Alexandre Desplat for Best Original Score. Stands a very high chance for Production Design and Costume.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 65%. Darkest Hour is Oscar-bait indefinitely, but it shows that Joe Wright is a godsend for period pieces. With everything else staying constant, this is a lock for Gary Oldman, and with all that heavy lifting, an expected nod for Best Makeup & Hairstyling.

Chances of winning Best Picture: 80%. This film is tricky, and peachy. Timothée Chalamet, at the age of 22, could pull off an upset in the Best Actor category, and at the age of 89, James Ivory might just grab the Original Screenplay award. Age is just a number. Talent always counts.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 89%. Technically, Jordan Peele should get the award for Best Original Screenplay, but with heavyweights like Guillermo del Toro, Christopher Nolan and PT Anderson, the Best Director statue seems illusive, but possible.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 85%. Dunkirk is the epitome of Sound design, so it won't come as a surprise if the statue goes to the team. And the probability of winning Best Original Score for Hans Zimmer is seemingly high.

Chances of winning Best Picture: 85%. I have high respect for Greta Gerwig, and to see her clinching Best Director would definitely be a highlight of the show. Yet again, the seats are hot and the contest is stiff. The one category that they could take home would be Original Screenplay. And by any luck, Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 60%. This film is timely, and may win the hearts of the academy voters. But technically, it is ordinarily Spielbergian, and is one of the weakest in the Best Picture race. Any chance for Meryl Streep? Unlikely. But who's to say?






Chances of winning Best Picture: 82%. Just give them the Costume award already. And if anything else, Jonny Greenwood deserves a pat on the back for his mesmerizing score. While I am rooting for Gary Oldman, it will be history in the making if Daniel Day-Lewis clinched his fourth Oscars for his swan song.




––– PREDICTIONS –––

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. The Shape of Water

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
alt. Jordan Peele – Get Out

Best Actor: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name

Best Actress: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The World

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Best Writing - Adapted: Call Me By Your Name
alt. Mudbound


Best Writing - Original: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. Get Out

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
alt. Blade Runner 2049

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
alt. The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
alt. Beauty & The Beast

Best Film Editing: Baby Driver
alt. I, Tonya

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
alt. Wonder

Best Music (Original Score): The Shape of Water
alt. Dunkirk

Best Music (Original Song): This Is Me – The Greatest Showman
alt. Remember Me – Coco

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
alt. Baby Driver

Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
alt. Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
alt. War for The Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
alt. Loving Vincent

Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
alt. The Square

Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places
alt. Icarus

Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
alt. Heroin(e)

Best Short Film (Animated): Dear Basketball
alt. Negative Space

Best Short Film (Live Action): DeKalb Elementary
alt. Watu Wote / All of Us


–––


Winners (correct alternative guesses in green, incorrect guesses in red):


Best Picture: The Shape of Water 
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Best Actor: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Best Actress: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Best Writing - Adapted: Call Me By Your Name
Best Writing - Original: Get Out
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Music (Original Score): The Shape of Water
Best Music (Original Song): Remember Me – Coco
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
 Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature: Icarus
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Short Film (Animated): Dear Basketball
Best Short Film (Live Action): 
 

A Very Classy Show.

The Big Ohhhhh

Predicting has never been my strongest forte, but I am stepping out of line to make some fancy guesses on eight of the biggest categories for the Oscars. The full nominees will be announced in two parts tonight via global live stream on Oscar.com.

So far, the guess-work across the board has been a mix-bag of safe choices and bold hunches, where speculations are influenced based on popular votes coupled with the celebrated winners of the past months. But no one can say for sure that certain stars are secured for the win, much less a nomination, and nobody knows how to react to this year's playing field which is crowded with great performances on all fronts. It's unpredictable and exciting in equal measure. Safe for specific categories like Best Actor and Best Actress, which is pretty much a lock for both Gary Oldman and Frances McDormand (two of the dominant forces who control the game plan this season), other nominees are truly up in the air. Sam Rockwell, hard on the heels of his Emmy's, Critics Choice's, and SAG's Supporting Actor victories (for playing an annoying police officer in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) is poised to seize the golden statue. This certainly won't come as a surprise. He is that good.

Despite the accolades surrounding Billboard, the film has been overcast by resentments of late. Opinionated, unhappy voices who have problems with the film, even going so far as to point out similarities with Crash - a movie many considered as the worst Best Picture winner ever. There are complains about the film being unreal, prejudiced towards certain character whose racist slant is just a passing remark without really showing the effects it had on the entire narrative, convenient coincidences that were conceived to tie loose ends, and misguided plot/character development that make little or no sense. These, however, are not going to stop the voters from pushing the film into the front-runner seat, as we see Martin McDonagh's black comedy gaining traction and honours, again and again. People may be unfamiliar or have forgotten the kind of players and outlines McDonagh is famous for. We shall then see if the Academy members thought otherwise, but I'm pretty certain that it will be one of the films to garner the most noms.

What works and what doesn't becomes the agenda for critics who have too much time on their hands, formulating discourses through think pieces, dissecting films like they are some kind of bacteria.

Chill.

Films are meant to start conversations and inspire, but they are also a medium ultimately aimed to entertain, sometimes without any political, racial or social commentary attached. Life's too short to be upset in plots and plotholes, or the lack thereof. Analysis is always welcome, especially during this awards season, but be glad that in a year where Trump rules in shittiness (thank God I'm not in that country), we can still escape to the world of celluloid to be enlightened.

So I digressed a bit, but the story continues. The ongoing "award shows" and their corresponding winners are enough to excite even the zaniest of cineaste as they scamper to make the final bets. This can go many ways, and it's rather nice to check certain names off the long list when the revelation is being announced. There will be upsets, there will be snubs, there will be dark horses and backlashes aplenty. Chill.


Here are my shots...

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks – The Post
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Strong contenders:
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
James Franco – The Disaster Artist (lower chance after his sexual harassment allegations, but his performance will not go overlooked)


Best Actress
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water 
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya 
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post

Strong contenders:
Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul
Emma Stone – Battle of The Sexes


Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Strong contender:
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World


Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Strong contender:
Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip


Best Original Screenplay
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Liz Hannah, Josh Singer – The Post
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Strong contenders:
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch – The Florida Project
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon – The Big Sick


Best Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory – Call Me by Your Name
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – Mudbound
John Pollono – Stronger

Strong contenders:
James Mangold, Scott Frank, Michael Green – Logan


Best Director
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg – The Post

Strong contenders:
Ridley Scott – All The Money In The World
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread


Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Strong contenders:
All The Money In The World
Battle of The Sexes
The Florida Project
I, Tonya
Mudbound
Phantom Thread



Counting down...

Dreamland

The morning smells great. The baby is in dreamland. I’m half-asleep, half-awake, awaiting for some form of breakfast. Let me escape for a moment, collect my thoughts, and take a shot in the dark on the Globes, before tomorrow’s telecast: 


HFPA 75th Golden Globe Awards Predictions:


Best Motion Picture (Drama): “Call Me By Your Name”

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical): “Lady Bird”

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”


Best Actor (Drama): Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical): Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Best Actress (Drama): Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, “Downsizing”

Best Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk”

Best Original Song: This Is Me - “The Greatest Showman”
Best Foreign Language Film: “First They Killed My Father”

Best Animated Feature Film: “Coco”


 
///


Alternative predictions:

Best Motion Picture (Drama): “The Shape of Water”

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical): “Get Out”

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, “The Post”


Best Actor (Drama): Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical): James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Best Actress (Drama): Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical): Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Best Screenplay: Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”

Best Original Song: Mighty River - “Mudbound”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Square”

Best Animated Feature Film: “The Breadwinner”



///


 The Winners (correct alternative guesses in green, incorrect guesses in red):

Best Motion Picture (Drama): “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” 
Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical): “Lady Bird”
  
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”  

Best Actor (Drama): Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical): James Franco, “The Disaster Artist” 
Best Actress (Drama): Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”  
Best Actress (Comedy/Musical): Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” 
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Best Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Original Score: Alexander Desplat, “The Shape of Water”
Best Original Song: This Is Me - “The Greatest Showman”

Best Foreign Language Film: “In The Fade”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Coco”

Not bad for a prediction, since I've only watched 65% of the nominated films.